Demonetisation move – a game changer : Experts
The Modi Government’s momentous decision to ban Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes is likely to hit the entire business world but it is the real estate sector that is going to be impacted the most, at least in the short-term. Coming after RERA, which is set to usher transparency and accountability, the move on black money will actually be a shot in the arm for the organised sector.
Though reactions from major players are yet to pour in, herewith we reproduce views of experts in the domain, and also a few developers.
Anuj Puri, Chairman & Country Head, JLL India: The banning of higher currency notes is a major move which will help curb unaccounted-for cash in the real estate sector. We have just witnessed a tremendous step towards increased transparency in the Indian real estate industry. The effects will be far-reaching and immediate, and shake up the sector in no uncertain way. Stricter measures against black money have for long been required to help bring about greater transparency, give the Indian real estate sector more credibility and make it more attractive for foreign investors.”
Anshuman Magazine, Chairman, India & South East Asia, CBRE: “It is a bold move. While it may cause some pain in the short-term, the long-term outlook for the industry looks positive. It certainly helps that the real estate industry has already moved towards transparency in its operations. Several steps taken by the Government in recent times–from the RERA Act and GST, to REIT–combined with this announcement, will further improve transparency and increase investor confidence in the real estate market in the long run.”
Shishir Bajaj, Chairman & MD, Knight Frank India: “The broader effects of this move will help the sector grow in the long run. Firstly, it will create a level-playing field amongst all stakeholders in the sector. Institutional funding to developers which till present day came with a higher risk weightage is bound to see some softening with the increased transparency. Prices coming down to more reasonable levels in the residential property market cannot be ruled out. In the immediate future, the sector will be under serious pressure with volume and number of transactions in residential and land markets seeing a substantial downward trend.”
Samir Jasuja, Founder & CEO, PropEquity: “This is a game-changer move which will deeply impact Indian real estate sector especially in the resale of ready residential properties. There is always certain unaccounted cash percentage in the range of 10-50 per cent of any sale of property in India which was making the real estate market volatile. In the short-run, there will be pain as it will impact all real estate deals, we expect price corrections of anywhere between 10-20 per cent depending on the micro markets. However, in the long run this unexpected move will make the property sector much more transparent, clean and organised.”
Amit Modi, Director ABA Corp & V-P, Credai Western UP: “It is move in the right direction by the Government and an extremely bold and laudable to say the least. A lot of money will now get into the banking system and we believe that it is a commencement toward the cashless economy which is a sign of maturing economy. Also since most of the organised players are already using banking channels, they would only gain from this decision. Unorganised players and the secondary market may get impacted in short term.”
Ashok Atri, Director, Delhi Infratech Ltd: “At the first instance, it seems good to stop liquidating black money in the market which is really a big concern. But a sudden and unplanned ban on currency notes may affect the stock market very badly. Similarly, it creates havoc among the investors due to rising uncertainties in the economic environment of India. Such stringent decision should be taken in phases without making a big bang on market sentiments.”
Arjun Basu Co-Founder & CEO, Doorkeys.com “This is a powerful and bold move by the Modi government. The real estate sector will finally be moving towards transparency in transactions. The secondary market will bear the biggest impact of this war against black money. The market was already in distress with a massive inventory overhang, and sellers are looking at the liquidation of their inventory at the earliest. This will benefit the consumer as the price for secondary or pre-owned properties are bound to spiral down. This will lead to more aggressive negotiations but also greater scope for transparent transactions. We laud this development”.
Mr Anubhav Jain, Director Group Silverglades
“This is a massive step in stopping black money and an extreme step taken very abruptly. On short term basis we can view this as a step that will cause distress in real estate markets”.
Mr. Sahil Kapoor, Executive Director of RE/MAX India “This decision comes at a time when Real Estate Industry is about to implement RERA and there could not be anything more complimenting than this decision. I strongly feel that our industry required some cleansing and this is the best possible way. It might just result in sentiment setback for a while but it will ultimately prove to be one of the best decisions for long term growth and sustainance of this industry.
The industry will move towards transparency and professionalism and serious and clean players will reap the benefits. The prices will become more affordable for end users and there will be no reasonable correction. It should be an opportunity for people to buy their dream home.
I understand that there is a state of panic and unrest among the few in this sector but the ones with clean business are very excited that industry will turnaround and become more organised and transparent.
Organised and large players like RE/MAX will welcome this move with open arms and reap maximum benefit out of it”.
Mr. Pankaj Bansal, Director, M3M Group : PM Modi’s major structural coup is bound to ensure boost in economy in the long run and will lead to an improved transparency in all the sectors including real estate. The surgical strike on black money would crash inflation which would benefit the genuine buyers. While this will definitely have no impact on the primary residential segment as the buyer in this sector are driven by mortgage, it will have high impact on the secondary market and unorganized sector which still largely work around cash dealings. Also with the implementation of Real Estate Regulatory Act (RERA) the sector is soon going to cleanse as well as boost India’s image globally. The move will bring in more transparency in the financial system of the country which will allow India’s GDP to flow through the digital pipes thereby improving the digital economy. PM Modi has rightly stepped forward for the welfare of the people as well as for the nation’s growth.
Mr. Akash Kapoor, Director, Elan Group : The surgical strike on black money is PM Modi’s strong step to curb corruption that has been plaguing the Indian economy for a long time. The decision is going to profit the consumers in a huge way as the prices of various commodities will fall drastically. Subsequently, It is a positive development which will eventually contribute to the growth of the country and will boost the digital economy. Most importantly the fall of the parallel economy will facilitate cash generation and we are hopeful that the interest rates would be lowered, this subsequently would have a positive impact and people will definitely invest in real estate. We are anticipating a major boom in the real estate industry with RERA setting the transparent tone. The step taken by PM Modi is highly commendable and will surely receive a positive response from all the sectors of the society
Mr. Sumit Berry, Managing Director, BDI Group : “The Modi government’s bold step on banning the higher currency would lead to the country’s economic development and also have a widespread impact in the real estate sector. This decision will surely have a positive impact on real estate as well since the primary transactions are via home loans.The buyers are surely going to benefit from it as this will give them an opportunity to buy their dream homes. In the long term this decision would strengthen our nation’s economy.”
Mr. Brijesh Bhanote, CMO- Paras Buildtech. “We welcome the demonetization initiative of the government. Reputed developers such as Paras Buildtech would not be affected as most large builders already transact in transparent manner. This move will nip the bud of the unscrupulous developers whose bad reputation was maligning the name of the entire sector. Demonetization in combination with recent policy initiatives announced by the government will give a boost to the investor confidence. We are confident that the long term implications of the new policy announcement shall out balance the minuscule short term impact that the sector may have to bear. “
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