Housing Absorption Dips 20% q-o-q, New Launches Down 34% in Q3 2019 – ANAROCK

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  • Top 7 cities saw 55,080 units sold in Q3 2019 against 68,600 units in Q2 2019; yearly decline recorded at 18% over Q3 2018
  • New launches fell from 69,020 units in Q2 2019 to 45,230 units in Q3 2019, 13% y-o-y decline from 52,130 units in Q3 2018
  • Kolkata & Chennai see lowest quarterly sales drop of 12% each; Hyderabad records highest drop at 26%
  • Unsold inventory in top cities declined meagrely by 1% – from 6.66 lakh units in Q2 2019 to 6.56 lakh units in Q3 2019; Hyderabad sheds maximum unsold stock of 5% in a quarter
  • 41% new supply of Q3 2019 in affordable segment, 36% in mid-segment (priced INR 40-80 lakh)
  • Property prices largely remained stagnant across cities
  • Recent Govt. sops boost sentiment at onset of festive season; housing sales may increase in upcoming quarters

Mumbai, 30 September 2019: Housing sales in Q3 2019 saw a quarterly decline of 20% across the top 7 cities – from 68,600 units in Q2 2019 to 55,080 units in Q3 2019. New launches fell by 34% over the same period – from 69,020 units in Q2 2019 to 45,230 units in Q3 2019. On a y-o-y basis, housing sales fell by 18% while new launches fell by 13% in Q3 2019 over the corresponding quarter in 2018.

The ongoing ‘shraadh period – seen as inauspicious in many parts of the country – coupled with the ban on the subvention schemes compounded the quarterly dip. Also, above normal and heavy rainfall impacted the number of site visits resulting in longer decision-making cycle.

In terms of sales, Hyderabad saw the maximum decline of 26% during the quarter with housing absorption falling from 4,430 units in Q2 2019 to 3,280 units in Q3 2019. Chennai and Kolkata saw the least sales decline at 12% each. As on Q3 2019, Chennai recorded overall sales of 2,620 units while Kolkata witnessed sales of 3,120 units.

MMR saw maximum sales in the quarter at 17,180 units, followed by Bengaluru with 10,500 units.

On the supply front, only Kolkata saw quarterly rise in new launches in Q3 2019, increasing by 19% from 2,640 units in Q2 2019 to 3,130 units in Q3 2019. On the contrary, NCR saw maximum quarterly decline of 57% – from 13,570 new units in Q2 2019 to 5,790 units in this quarter.

Among categories, affordable housing continued to dominate – accounting for a 41% share of overall new launches (45,230 units) in Q3 2019, followed by 36% in the mid-segment priced between INR 40-80 lakhs.

Anuj Puri, Chairman – ANAROCK Property Consultants says, “The decline in new supply and housing sales in this quarter was expected as both homebuyers and developers remained cautious and risk-averse. The slew of economy-boosting measures by the government to spur growth across sectors will very likely give the housing sector a leg-up in the festive season and the ensuing quarters.”

“As evidenced by the quick revival of the stock markets, these measures have already bolstered all-round sentiment. Housing is intensely sentiment-driven and we expect the numbers to improve significantly going forward. Most importantly for the sector, we are seeing a gradual revival of investor confidence. The recent corporate tax cut will spur investments from both domestic and foreign investors – the real need of the hour.”

Overall unsold stock as on Q3 2019 is approx. 6.56 lakh units across the top 7 cities, declining by a meagre 1% against the preceding quarter. However, developers were able to shed their overall unsold stock by at least 5% during the year which stood at 6.87 lakh units back in Q3 2018.

Q3 2019 New Launch Overview

The top 7 cities recorded new unit launches of around 45,230 units in Q3 2019 against 69,020 units in Q2 2019 and 52,130 units in Q3 2018.

The key cities contributing to Q3 2019’s new unit launches included MMR (Mumbai Metropolitan Region), Pune, Bengaluru and NCR, which together accounted for 83% of the supply additions.

  • MMR saw the launch of approx. 14,040 units – a decline of nearly 39% over Q2 2019 and 29% y-o-y. Over 64% new supply was added in the sub INR 80 lakhs budget segment.
  • Bengaluru added approx. 9,370 units in Q3 2019, a quarterly decrease of 15% but a 31% increase over Q3 2018. Over 83% new supply was added in the sub INR 80 lakh price bracket.
  • Pune added approx. 8,320 units in Q3 2019 against 10,700 units in Q2 2019 – a quarterly drop of 22%. The city saw new supply increase by 6% annually.
  • NCR added approx. 5,790 units in Q3 2019 against 13,570 units in Q2 2019 – a massive decrease of 57%. However, NCR saw the maximum supply rise of 38% among the top cities on yearly basis. Approx. 64% of the new supply was in the affordable segment in Q3 2019.
  • Hyderabad new launches dropped significantly by 51% over the previous quarter with approx. 2,050 units launched in Q3 2019. The y-o-y supply decline was also 51%.
  • Chennai added approx. 2,530 units in Q3 2019 against 3,890 units in Q2 2019, a quarterly decrease of 35% and y-o-y fall of 48%.
  • Kolkata added approx. 3,130 units in Q3 2019, an increase of 19% over Q2 2019’s 2,640 units – but a decline of 22% y-o-y. Approx. 54% of the new supply was in the affordable segment.

City-wise Supply (In Units) & percentage change Q-o-Q & Y-o-Y
Cities Name  Q3 2019  Q2 2019  % Change (Q2 Vs Q3 2019)  Q3 2018  % Change (Q3 2018 Vs Q3 2019)
NCR 5,790 13,570 -57% 4,200 38%
MMR 14,040 23,050 -39% 19,850 -29%
Bengaluru 9,370 11,010 -15% 7,170 31%
Pune 8,320 10,700 -22% 7,880 6%
Hyderabad 2,050 4,160 -51% 4,150 -51%
Chennai 2,530 3,890 -35% 4,850 -48%
Kolkata 3,130 2,640 19% 4,030 -22%
Total 45,230 69,020 -34% 52,130 -13%

Source: ANAROCK Research

Q3 2019 Overall Sales Overview

Around 55,080 units were sold in Q3 2019 – a decline of 20% over Q2 2019, and a 18% y-o-y decline.  NCR, MMR, Bengaluru and Pune together accounted for 84% of the sales in the quarter.