Sales for apartments priced over Rs 1.5 cr surge by over 270% Y-oY in Q2 2022: JLL

• Sales growth Q-o-Q is flat at around 3%, with rising prices and interest rates showing some effect
• Mumbai and Bengaluru accounted for 45% of the total sales in H1 2022
• Quarterly launches up 6% Q-o-Q, led by Mumbai and Hyderabad
• Prices have moved up by 3-7% Y-o-Y across all cities driven by robust sales momentum and developers having passed on the increase in input costs in recent times

Mumbai,  July 13, 2022: Residential sales in Q2 2022 ( April-June) in the Rs 1.5 crore plus price tag increased by over 270% Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y). The two larger markets of Delhi NCR and Mumbai saw maximum sales in the quarter in this price bracket. Apartments priced above Rs 1.5 crore had a share of 15% in the quarterly sales in Q2 2022. The higher levels of residential sales in the premium category show increased demand for bigger homes and buyer confidence coming back to the market. However, apartments in the price bracket between Rs 50 lakh-75 lakh still had a larger share of 28% in the residential sale during the quarter. Bengaluru and Pune recorded the majority of the respective city sales in this price category according to JLL’s Residential Market Update – Q2 2022.

Residential sales gaining momentum in the premium segment

Note: Data includes only apartments. Rowhouses, villas, and plotted developments are excluded from our analysis 

Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (REIS), JLL Research

Healthy offtake of residential apartments in Q2 2022

The residential market recorded sales of over 53,000 units in Q2 2022 which is an increase of 171% Y-o-Y as compared to Q2 2021 across the top 7 cities. This demonstrates the rising demand due to containment of the pandemic and buyer confidence coming back to the market. On a sequential basis, sales increased by 3% during the quarter. Appreciation in residential prices due to rising input costs and interest rates led to almost flat sequential growth in Q2 2022. Mumbai is the largest contributor to sales (23%) followed by Bengaluru with 21% and Delhi NCR with 19% of the overall sales.

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Note: Mumbai includes Mumbai city, Mumbai suburbs, Thane city, and Navi Mumbai 

Data includes only apartments. Rowhouses, villas, and plotted developments are excluded from our analysis 

Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (REIS), JLL Research

Another 6,013 residential units in the plots and villa categories were sold during Q2 2022 across the top seven cities. The majority of the traction was seen in the southern cities of Bengaluru, Chennai, and Hyderabad.

Strong recovery in sales in H1 2022 over H1 2021

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“India’s residential market has shown remarkable resilience in the last year. Sales of more than 105,000 units were recorded in H1 2022 which is an increase of 119% Y-o-Y as compared to H1 2021. This certainly indicates that the market sentiments are improving compared to the previous year. Sales got a boost from many factors including lower COVID-19 cases, pick up in economic activity, and a stable employment scenario. The residential market has charted a new chapter of growth in H1 2022” said Siva Krishnan, Head – Residential, India, JLL. 

Note: Mumbai includes Mumbai city, Mumbai suburbs, Thane city, and Navi Mumbai 

Data includes only apartments. Rowhouses, villas, and plotted developments are excluded from our analysis 

Source: Real Estate Intelligence Service (REIS), JLL Research

Prices moving northwards

The increase in input costs and the strong demand has caused an appreciation in residential prices with capital values showing a 3-7% Y-o-Y increase across all cities except Hyderabad which showed resilience by clocking double-digit price growth over the same period “Developers have partially passed on the input cost increases which are now reflected in the current residential prices. New launches also entered the market at higher prices. With interest rates in an upcycle, costs for owning a house are likely to increase further. This may cause some short-term deflation in demand but with changing dynamics around home ownership and with interest rates still on the lower side, residential demand is likely to remain on its growth trajectory,” said Dr. Samantak Das, Chief Economist, and Head Research & REIS, India, JLL.  

New launches scale-up

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New launches of more than 63,000 units were recorded in Q2 2022, an increase of 6% Q-o-Q and 135% Y-O-Y. Mumbai dominated with a 27% share in the new launches followed by Hyderabad and Pune which contributed 25% and 21% respectively. Quarterly launches were higher on a Q-o-Q basis in Delhi NCR, Hyderabad, Mumbai, and Pune. It saw a declining quarterly trend in Bengaluru, Chennai, and Kolkata.

New project launches expand in Q2 2022

Around 8,056 units were also launched across the top seven cities of India in the plots and villa segments in Q2 2022. These projects also recorded good responses from the buyers.

Unsold inventory increases by 2.1%; 

In Q2 2022, unsold inventory across the seven cities increased by 2.1% on a Q-o-Q basis as new launches outpaced sales. Mumbai, Delhi NCR, and Bengaluru together account for 60% of the unsold stock. An assessment of years to sell (YTS)  shows that the expected time to liquidate the stock has declined from 4.2 years in Q1 2022 to 3.6 years in Q2 2022, an  indication of robust sales growth   

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Analyzing the sales performance as a proportion of total available inventory

Sales penetration -defined as % of apartments sold versus total available inventory is a marker of how markets actually performed on a normalized basis, accounting for varying levels of unsold inventory across all cities. Compared to this metric, the sales penetration for H1 2022 was at an average of 18% at a pan-India level. When looking at individual cities, sales penetration was highest in Pune (28%) with Bengaluru and Kolkata (21%) joint second. Both Pune and Kolkata are smaller markets in absolute sales terms of apartments, but they perform much better on a normalized comparison when sales penetration is considered. Rising inventory levels amid improving sales need to be looked at as well, when analyzing sales performance across cities.  

Outlook: 

Developers have partially passed on the rising input cost to the buyers and also there has been an increase in interest rates. As a result, there may be some cooling down of sales in the short term. However, successful containment of the pandemic, improved buyer sentiments, and strong fundamentals of the residential market will lead to an upward trajectory in both launches and sales in the medium to long term. Only credible developers, who are customer-centric and possess proven execution capability, as well as quality products, will survive and emerge stronger.

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